Urgent Call for Decarbonisation: A Strategic Imperative Based on Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2024

Source: FES 2024 National Grid ESO

• • Electrification’s Central Role: Electrification emerges as a central theme in the FES 2024. The FES predicts that electricity will achieve average annual negative emissions by 2050, measured in terms of kgCO₂e per kWh in all net zero pathways. It’s evident that electrification of demand, including vehicles and heating, is not just likely but inevitable. Furthermore, in the hydrogen evolution pathway, hydrogen helps meet about 30% of overall energy demand, with the remaining demand met by electricity, underscoring the critical role of electrification in decarbonisation.
  • Uniform EV Adoption Rates: One of the most significant updates in the Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2024 is the alignment of net zero electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates with the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate. This mandate sets ambitious targets, requiring 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans sold in Great Britain to be zero emission by 2030, increasing to 100% by 2035. This alignment ensures a unified approach towards full electrification of cars and vans, providing a clear timeline for the transition. It offers both manufacturers and consumers the certainty needed to embrace electric mobility.
  • Increased Insulation Contribution: Demand-side reduction enabled by insulation is poised to play a more critical role than previously anticipated. FES 2024 highlights that all net zero pathways now anticipate higher levels of energy savings from insulation at homes, a departure from FES 2023. In the previous year’s scenarios, the system transformation scenario showed insulation to have a lower impact on energy demand levels compared to the current pathways. This change highlights the importance of energy efficiency in achieving net zero goals.
  • Hydrogen Utilisation: Directives from UK authorities are expected to be pivotal, particularly the forthcoming decision in 2026 regarding the role of hydrogen in heating systems, which may hold significant influence. The current ‘Hydrogen Evolution’ pathway within the FES 2024 outlines a vision for hydrogen as a central heating medium, with goals to establish a comprehensive network by 2050, starting with industrial clusters by 2030. In contrast, the ‘Holistic Transition’ approach suggests a more conservative strategy, limiting hydrogen heating largely to industrial zones.
  • Increased Demand Flexibility: Smart grids and smart demand-side management are becoming increasingly crucial for efficiently balancing energy supply and demand. Emerging technologies like vehicle-to-grid (V2G), which enable electric vehicles to return power to the grid when needed, are anticipated to play a more significant role than previously expected. For instance, according to FES 2024, National Grid projects that V2G will provide c. 60% more peak capacity flexibility than what was predicted in the FES 2023 analysis.
  • Methane Reformation and CCS: Methane reformation is a method for producing hydrogen by reacting methane with steam at high temperatures in the presence of a catalyst. This method also produces carbon emissions. The report highlights that methane reformation combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be crucial for achieving the decarbonisation goals outlined in the Sixth Carbon Budget.
  • Higher importance on BECCS: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) levels have grown in all net zero pathways. Electric Engagement and Hydrogen Evolution scenarios project BECCS capacity reaching around 4.5 GW by 2050, up from zero currently.
  • Growing Importance of DACCS: Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (DACCS) is now featured in all pathways, reflecting its emerging importance in our decarbonisation strategy, despite being a relatively new technology.
  • Long-term dependence on Nuclear Power: The reliance on nuclear energy is expected to increase compared to FES 2023, following the release of the “Civil Nuclear: Roadmap to 2050,” which outlines the UK government’s vision for nuclear power. Projections estimate nuclear capacity to grow to between 11-22 GW by 2050, up from the current c.6 GW. This expansion comes after a brief anticipated decline in capacity from 2026 to 2030, as National Grid expects most existing nuclear power stations to retire by 2030.